Speeches by Coghlan.

“Just on your point there, Professor Allas, I agree. How on earth can we expect productivity to improve if we are not actually increasing public investment?”

“One of the most effective areas of public investment is investment in innovation. Philippe Aghion won a recent Nobel prize in this space. The OBR does not credit government intervention and innovation policy as having had any impact over five years. Does that disincentivise the Government from investing in public R&D?”

“Dr Beck-Friis, the fiscal space point is interesting. As we know, the EU has a similar but not as bad issue with productivity. Mario Draghi, in his keynote speech to the EU in September, urged the EU to borrow for R&D, especially defence R&D. He stated that even a modest 2% total factor productivity increase over a dec…”

“You announced a new approach to scoring supply-side impact policies. In plain language, is it now more difficult for the Government to get pro-growth impact policies included in the forecasts, or is it easier to avoid anti-growth impacts?”

“It is the “Dynamic scoring of policy measures in OBR forecasts” from 9 November 2023. It assumes a fiscal multiplier of zero for public investment in year 5.”

“You state in the EFO that the Government will reduce SEND funding by £2.2 billion in ’29-30. The Department for Education have put out a statement saying the OBR is fundamentally wrong and that it will not come out of the core schools budget, and the projections do not take into account the detail of their reforms. Do …”

“Professor Miles, we spoke about the difficulty for the Government of numbers moving rapidly. There is a major concern for me: I was looking at your dynamic policy scoring document for 2023. If I understand it correctly, the OBR does not score any fiscal multipliers from year five onwards. They assume that Government po…”

“Is it possible to build a forward-looking, bottom-up forecast of productivity? One of my concerns is that, obviously, these numbers have been so wrong over the last 15 years, and that has created a large negative impact on Government policymaking.”

“In your analysis, does your productivity forecast essentially still come down to a top-down judgment based on past trends, as we have discussed in previous sessions?”

“The Liberal Democrats welcome this measure, but what work have the Government done to ensure that the regulation will be in line with that of international regulators such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, to reduce the burden on our businesses?”

“The shadow Minister makes an interesting point about the personal views of some fund managers. What is his view on including defence stocks in ESG portfolios, given the change in the geopolitical situation?”

“Even though your own report says that it has long-term effects.”

“Am I interpreting this document wrongly then, given what you are saying?”

“I thank the right hon. Member, a colleague on the Treasury Committee, for giving way. I agree with many of the things he is saying, but does he not agree that the Conservative party also has considerable responsibility for this situation, through Brexit?”

“In February, Louise Holmes took me to her restaurant HolmeStores in Dorking, which was especially popular for brunch. It had fantastic food and a beautiful wood-panelled interior. Louise had 12 employees and was thinking about a second site, but she could not afford the employers’ national insurance increase, so today …”

“I thank the hon. Member for giving way. She is a colleague with me on the Treasury Committee. In terms of the Government delivering hope, a key part of the Government’s economic forecasting comes, of course, from the Office for Budget Responsibility. A lot of what has driven the Budget today is the £16 billion producti…”

“Professor Leunig, on the natural experiment point under covid, is that true? Part of the incentive during covid was that it was time-limited.”

“In my constituency, in Bookham, access to the train to London is via an uneven path through the woods. Network Rail has not prioritised accessibility upgrades. Does the hon. Member agree that the Government must do more with accessibility schemes, like those he just mentioned?”

“Mr Osborne, in the spring statement, the Chancellor was able to upgrade GDP by £11 billion a year, using the uplift in defence spending, based on a fiscal multiplier of 1.6. That comes from Paolo Surico on how you can use defence R&D to raise economic growth. I say that because on the way in here I listened with intere…”

“Defence R&D is a form of public investment, but more broadly, you said earlier that the Chancellor was getting it right in terms of increasing public investment. Do you think that the Government is putting enough money into public investment? I am thinking particularly of the cuts under the coalition.”