Speeches by Coghlan.

“I thank the Minister for his engagement with the various associations, which I know is appreciated. I also welcome the improvement in recruitment. However, how are veterans meant to feel that there is anything other than persecution when incidents such as Loughgall—an exemplary SAS counter-terrorism operation—are grant…”

“As you know, the National Bureau of Economic Research in the US has published an estimate of the Brexit cost of 6% to 8% of GDP—effectively a £90 billion Brexit black hole. Given this, do you support the Liberal Democrat proposals for an EU customs union, as several Labour MPs do?”

“Chancellor, you know that I am a fan of the Government’s language on public R&D. The OBR has published that a 10% increase in UK R&D capital would equate to a 1.9% long-term increase in productivity. Those are stunning numbers, given the 0.3% productivity downgrade creating a £16 billion fiscal black hole. I am struggl…”

“Chancellor, I have a quick follow-up question on R&D. In September, Draghi urged the EU to—”

“In October 2021, my 17-year-old constituent Jennifer Chalkley, who was autistic, died by avoidable suicide. I fully acknowledge the role that perhaps the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives had in scrapping Sure Start, contributing to this crisis. Can I have your assurance, please, that you will properly fund both …”

“Exactly. In September, Draghi urged the EU to borrow for defence R&D, stating that that would decrease debt to GDP because GDP would grow faster than interest costs and that a 2% increase in total factor productivity would cut the public finance burden by a third over a decade. Do you think a similar approach could app…”

“Of course, but given your belief in public R&D, do you think it is okay that we are only in the middle of the G7 in terms of our rate of public R&D, and that the UK has had the worst productivity crisis since the financial crisis?”

“Final question: why is the Fed doing this differently?”

“T4. Public research and development is so powerful for economic growth that US patents funded by it generate 12 times more growth than those that are not. But does the Chancellor accept the judgment of the OBR that UK public R&D will generate no additional incremental growth because we are not increasing it enough?”

“Was that number published because of the political pressure the Bank was coming under on the cost of this?”

“Does anyone else wish to comment?”

“Is the £125 billion included in that—the £120 billion?”

“On Kenova, I can express only the horror experienced by some of the victims, but the wider context of our security services is very important. I worked in counter-terrorism in the Foreign Office, on the anti-ISIS campaign. The Secretary of State speaks about strict regulation, and that resonates. He speaks about “neith…”

“Yes, mysteriously. Right now, as taxpayers we are paying a £20 billion-a-year cost—that is a very significant amount. Do you feel it is being handled in the correct way?”

“You are absolutely right. The taxpayer was making £20 billion a year or so prior to 2022, but for the Government at the time, that money disappeared. That is a sunk cost or a sunk benefit.”

“The overall fiscal cost of QE and QT at current market interest rates is approximately—on our numbers—£120 billion. Obviously, that was in the 2010s. That is a very significant sum, looking at the NPV of it as a whole for us to pay.”

“I would like to follow up on Yuan Yang’s point. When the Governor was in front of the Committee, we heard that from a finance theory point of view, it should be irrelevant whether you sell the gilts now or pay the interest on the losses over the life of the gilts, but surely that is not the case, because if you realise…”

“Defence innovation is vital in adapting our armed forces to the drone age and the war in Ukraine, but also to the Government’s economic strategy. What confidence can the country have in the MOD’s ability to deliver, given the debacle with Ajax?”

“Dr Beck-Friis, the fiscal space point is interesting. As we know, the EU has a similar but not as bad issue with productivity. Mario Draghi, in his keynote speech to the EU in September, urged the EU to borrow for R&D, especially defence R&D. He stated that even a modest 2% total factor productivity increase over a dec…”

“Finally, Professor Allas, is the OBR’s method for forecasting productivity sufficiently rigorous? I am thinking in particular about the fact that its use a top-down judgment rather than a bottom-up forecast for productivity.”