Kenilworth & Southam.

Kenilworth and Southam is a prosperous, largely rural seat in the West Midlands, with a median age of 46, a heavily White population of around 95,000, and a degree-educated share well above the national norm at over two in five. No single town dominates. Kenilworth, at roughly 22,000 people, is the largest settlement, but a near-equal slice of the seat is rural and dispersed, with Southam, Wellesbourne and a scatter of villages such as Kineton and Long Itchington making up the rest. Local services are split across three district authorities -- Stratford-on-Avon, which holds the most wards, alongside Warwick and Rugby -- a fragmentation that itself shapes how the area is governed.

That three-council patchwork is reflected in a mixed and shifting local map. Across the 22 most-recent ward contests the Liberal Democrats lead on seats won, ahead of the Conservatives, with the Greens taking a handful, including a 2025 gain in Kenilworth Park Hill and the most recent 2026 contests breaking towards the Liberal Democrats. At Westminster the seat returned the Conservative Jeremy Wright, its member since 2005, on a little over a third of the vote in 2024, with Labour second. The contrast with 2019, when the Conservative share approached three-fifths, points to a margin that has narrowed considerably.

On the figures available the seat appears to be loosening rather than realigning, Conservative at Westminster but increasingly contested in its wards. Recent local coverage has had a markedly administrative character, dominated by planning and housing-allocation questions and by the prospect of council reorganisation across Warwickshire -- the procedural backdrop to a two-tier area facing structural change. The combination -- a sharply reduced parliamentary margin set against a fragmented, Liberal Democrat-leaning ward picture -- leaves the seat looking more competitive than its long Conservative tenure would suggest.