Cheltenham.

Cheltenham is a single-town seat in the South West of England, built almost entirely around the Regency spa town that gives it its name and which holds roughly 98 per cent of the constituency's population of about 100,000. Beyond the built-up area lies only a thin scatter of rural and dispersed settlement, so the politics of the place is, in practice, the politics of one town. It is comparatively prosperous and well-educated, with about 44.8 per cent of residents degree-qualified and a median age of 40, and remains ethnically homogeneous on the census measure. Local services across its 18 wards fall to a single body, Cheltenham Borough Council, a district authority.

That council has tilted firmly towards the Liberal Democrats. Across the 18 most recent ward contests, fought in May 2026, the party took 15, with the Greens winning two and Reform UK one, the latter on a notably low share in a single ward. Turnouts were broadly even across the town. The parliamentary picture has moved the same way: in 2024 the Liberal Democrats took the seat on 50.6 per cent against the Conservatives on 36.1 per cent, a clear margin that reversed the wafer-thin Conservative hold of 2019. The sitting member, Max Wilkinson, was returned at that election and has registered no whipped dissent in recent months.

On the figures available the seat now leans Liberal Democrat at both tiers, and the contest of recent years has narrowed to whether the Greens can build on their two wards rather than whether the Conservatives can recover. Recent local coverage has had a settled, civic character, weighted towards budget-setting, town-centre investment and the cultural calendar rather than political conflict. Anti-social behaviour appears to run around 40 per cent above the constituency average. For now the seat looks comfortably held, with the principal question one of which challenger, if any, gains ground.