Speeches by Yang.

“Can I push further on Mr Glen’s point?”

“Sir Robert, you have mentioned that the underprediction of borrowing and the overconfidence in departmental spending limits being stuck to is a feature of the system, not a bug. But do you not think that there is a role for more scenario planning, so that the OBR is able to produce credible forecasts of departmental sp…”

“That sounds as if the OBR was created to solve a problem that did not really exist in the 2000s, because, as you say, those forecasts were so stable and credible.”

“But overall, does that mean that when assessing a five-year forecast period in the 15 years of the OBR, compared with, say, the previous 15 years of Treasury forecasts, the OBR forecasts have been more inaccurate at the end of that five-year period, compared with the Treasury previously?”

“Over the first three years of the forecast, you would be more accurate than the Treasury was previously. But over year four and year five, at the end of the forecast period, you would be less accurate than the Treasury was previously. Some of that is structural, as you said, and about the changing era that you were in.”

“But that reduces over the longer period. You are better in the first three years, and then you are similar to the Treasury over a longer period.”

“This is a question either to Sir Robert or to Mr Hughes. One of the initial intentions for the OBR was to produce more accurate and credible forecasts independently than would be produced under the Treasury. Looking back over the 15 years since its creation, has that happened?”

“Sure, but in those cases you are still relying on HMRC and DWP experts and so on to input into your forecasting. There is still that shared task.”

“Sir Robert, you made a comparison between the friction introduced by models like the Netherlands model and models in other countries where the equivalent of the OBR only scrutinises and checks the Treasury forecast. That comparison is really interesting, because the Netherlands has about three or four times the staff t…”

“To go back to your original point on what you are trying to maximise, you stated that you want to maximise business investment, subject to not eroding the current level of consumer protection or competitiveness. Does that suggest that you think that where the UK is right now in terms of our level of consumer protection…”

“On a broader philosophical or economic principles level, do you think there is too much competition and market regulation that stifles growth in the UK right now?”

“On the topic of balancing regulation and growth, you have described how a big barrier to business investment in the UK is lack of predictability of the regulatory environment. As my colleagues have mentioned, given the drop in the last year not just in overall decisions on mergers, but in the number of investigations p…”

“You mentioned the 15 years of low private investment in the UK, which has really damaged our economy. Did the CMA have any part to play in that?”

“Mr Gurr, using that analogy you made with the constrained optimisation problem, is the CMA already at the optimal frontier and, if not, where could it be improved?”

“We know so much now, 10 years on from the referendum, about the economic impacts of the Conservative Brexit deal. I will not spend too much time discussing them, other than to say that they come up every time I knock on a door in Reading that belongs to an owner of a small or medium-sized enterprise. Across the UK, the…”

“No thank you. There is much we can now do to mitigate the costs of Brexit for our constituents, including securing a sanitary and phytosanitary veterinary agreement with the EU. I ask the Minister to give an update on the progress of that. Colleagues on the living standards coalition of MPs found that securing such an …”

“So are you considering now how the way people are shopping needs to change the taxation system?”

“Secondly, over the course of both of our lifetimes, business rates as a proportion of GDP have really fallen. People are shopping in different ways: people are shopping online and our high streets are seeing a transformation as well. Is the system of business rates sustainable? You mentioned the £34 billion that HMRC w…”

“But the formula—the process itself—is within your remit. You could change it if you wanted to.”

“Is the valuation process itself going to stay as complicated as it is right now?”