Speeches by Glen.

“Could I ask a follow-up on that specific point? Under the previous Government, childcare policy was quite significant and there was quite an intense iterative process between the Treasury and the OBR with respect to scoring it. It would be fair to say that the Treasury would, in some circumstances, be keen to push you …”

“The key concern is that the Government are elected to decide, and you have a lot of influence over that. There is contestability over what level of maturity policies are at. Obviously, all Governments would say, “This is going to deliver x,” and you could say, “Well, no, it is going to deliver y.” I think people are ve…”

“Thank you very much, Mr Hughes.”

“Last week, President Trump announced tariffs on car imports. If those had been in your forecast, would all the Chancellor’s headroom have been used up already?”

“The key issue that is dominating the news today is what effect these tariffs will have. I appreciate this is in the context of ongoing conversations and that the Business Secretary is anxious to say that we do not want to do anything that will precipitate a worse outcome, but given that your central forecast is the one…”

“And that does not incorporate the recent changes?”

“I recognise that that is a very fair depiction of the uncertainties, but none the less you are, as we discussed earlier, the arbiters of what Government policy is, which must evolve in real time. We will see some economists this afternoon who I think have incorporated tariffs into their forecasts, and private sector or…”

“Do you want more people?”

“Everyone always says that, but do you need more to be at the cutting edge?”

“Turning to Professor Miles, the theme we are finding is that there is a grave amount of uncertainty in world trade policy. The countermeasures that the respective countries that are most impacted take are also difficult to compute. Is it fair to say that we should view all economists’ assessments of future trade policy…”

“Trump could still be there, if recent reports are correct.”

“Could you help the Committee and those watching to understand what assessment you make beyond the tariff policy of the Trump Administration, in terms of broader economic policy, and how that is reflected in your assessment of the impact on the UK economy? How does the UK economy respond to the other elements of Trump’s…”

“You mentioned the business confidence surveys. My colleague Dame Harriett Baldwin mentioned them too. Given that some of them were too proximate to the autumn assessments you made, and given the experience that you have seen over the last 12 months, will you be factoring those into your assessments going towards the Bu…”

“They are material to the growth forecast that you are predicting for the next year.”

“Whether or not there is consensus on the quantum, It is quite clear, directionally, that it is going one way or the other. Nobody, even the Government themselves in their impact assessment on the Employment Rights Bill, is saying that it will be anything other than a cost of up to £5 billion. You must have a sense of t…”

“£9.93 billion.”

“Thank you; I think I have used up my time.”

“I want to ask a final question of Dr Saleheen about tariffs. What are your reflections on recent events, what you see unfolding with tariffs and the effect on the UK economy that has not been reflected so far in the events of last week?”

“This whole debate rather underscores that there is a high degree of volatility in these assessments. You have been through more fiscal events than we have over the past 15 years. The variance between consecutive fiscal events is usually quite significant, from something that is presented by successive Chancellors as an…”

“Can I turn to Mr Johnson on these forecasts? The OBR’s world economy forecast incorporates the data from the IMF’s January forecast, which again does not take account of the recent developments in the US. One of the central problems that is emerging—I think all Governments face this—is that when there is grave uncertai…”