Speeches by Baldwin.

“But it is baked in for next year.”

“The second big thing that struck me that you might do in this Budget was around fuel duty. You have actually extended the 5p off fuel duty for another year. The Office for Budget Responsibility highlights the risk that eventually we will not have any fuel duty because we will all have moved to electric cars. Are you pl…”

“I add my congratulations on your appointment, Chancellor. I appreciate, as you will, just how much power and responsibility you have now, particularly with 400 MPs to vote through any measures you wish to implement. I recognise that one of the aspects of the financial world that you do not control is the markets. The O…”

“On the gilt market more specifically—there will be questions on those other topics as we go through—did you have conversations with the Debt Management Office or the Bank about the capacity of the gilt market to absorb that extra issuance as a result of the actions that you took?”

“Thank you very much, Chair. I wanted to start with the evidence we took this morning from the Office for Budget Responsibility because I suspect you have either had a chance to follow that or had a chance to read its document. This Budget adds £350 billion to public spending over the next five years. The Office for Bud…”

“This is a slightly niche issue. Is it your understanding that, for a working couple who are not married, if one of them were, unfortunately, to lose their life, their death-in-service benefit would now become taxable because they are not married, if it is more than £325,000? Did anyone read the small print closely enou…”

“As economists, you will be aware of the debate around the size of a country’s deficit and the whole idea, which some economists support and others disagree with, around Reinhart‑Rogoff and the 90% level for the borrowing of an economy. Once you get to that level, it makes it harder for economies to grow and it makes th…”

“You are accruing for it rather than having it as a lump-sum maturity payment the way the bond itself works. Okay, that is helpful. Finally, this predecessor Committee was interested in fuel duty fiction. My understanding is that the 5p has been extended for another year to March 2026, but then your numbers assume that …”

“It is not included in this fiscal rule. Okay. Is the debt interest accrued on the index-linked included in this fiscal rule? How are you accounting for that in your assessment?”

“How big is that?”

“The point is that it is the market-to-market value in the fiscal rules. That was what I was trying to get an answer to. The second question is about the pensions system. My understanding is that this new fiscal rule—public sector net financial liabilities—includes the net asset value of—Meg and I both should declare an…”

“Can you just help us with that? Yesterday, an increase was announced in the student loan required to go to university. How much would an extra £100 show up as in public sector net financial liabilities?”

“Can I ask about those? My understanding is that one of the financial assets that is now in the public sector net financial liabilities is the student loan book. Is that in there at nominal value or at market-to-market value?”

“Does anyone else have a different point of view on that? You all felt that what the Office for Budget Responsibility said was reasonable. In terms of the interaction with what the Bank of England is doing on quantitative tightening, does anyone have an opinion on how the gilt market might react in terms of the overall …”

“Richard Hughes, you are the Office for Budget Responsibility. Is the new fiscal rule more or less responsible than the previous one?”

“The entire headroom, basically.”

“Can you put a number on it? With a 1% move in interest rates that is not anticipated in your projections, how sensitive would that make the UK economy?”

“I want to ask a bit more about some of those aspects later on. I want to ask about the impact on interest rates. You said in your report that you have raised permanently the interest rate by a quarter as a result of the measures taken in the Budget. How sensitive is the UK economy now to additional shocks in terms of i…”

“Thank you, Chair. This is a question for Richard Hughes. You start your report by saying that the economic and fiscal backdrop since March is broadly unchanged. The Budget itself creates an enormous £350 billion increase in public spending. You are the Office for Budget Responsibility. Is that responsible?”

“You think there will be twice the impact that the Office for Budget Responsibility—”