Speeches by Baldwin.

“So this salary sacrifice is pretty tough on middle earners.”

“Moving on to my second topic, if I may, are we saving enough in this country for pensions?”

“Have you done any work on what the distribution is of the people who do participate in these schemes?”

“Turning to my third topic, which is around the net migration numbers that the Office for Budget Responsibility has put into its forecasts, there has been a lot of anecdotal commentary in the media about the fact that there are a lot of people leaving the UK. There does not seem to be any data out there about how much t…”

“Still within the parameters that you estimated?”

“Finally, on a point that we were talking about earlier, the net migration mix, we heard that you do not have a lot of information yet. You also told us, in your report at the Budget last year, that the measures that the Chancellor put in place at that time regarding the non-domicile regime were highly uncertain. I thin…”

“I have a final question. The salary-sacrifice measures in relation to pensions were the second-biggest item in terms of the tax increases in this Budget. Will that have a long-term impact on your medium-term fiscal forecasts and the amount that we save for pensions in this country?”

“As a nation, we will save less.”

“Very good. I have just a couple more. On the Employment Rights Bill, am I right in my understanding that you have not yet incorporated any impact of the Employment Rights Bill in your forecast?”

“So the Budget did not increase growth. It did not change the productivity of the UK economy. Specifically on NHS productivity, because the spending on the NHS is such a big line item in the Budget, you have, in previous reports, told us that NHS productivity has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Is that still th…”

“Yes or no.”

“Another quick one, trying for a yes or no. In aggregate, did the measures in this week’s Budget improve productivity in the UK, Mr Josephs?”

“In short, “higher taxes mean lower growth” is what I heard you say there, Professor Miles.”

“Yes.”

“Is that something you have asked for, Mr Josephs?”

“I am going to try to elicit some yes/no answers. You have obviously covered a lot of ground so far, and there are a few last topics where I would just like to get a yes or no from you. First, the Chancellor has told us repeatedly about the importance of growth. In aggregate, did the measures announced in this week’s Bu…”

“One of the characteristics of that recent data was the number of people leaving the country. Is there any data on the tax take for people who are leaving versus the tax revenues from the people coming in? Are you able to make any assessment of that at this point?”

“But further to that exact question, given the revealed preference that we have seen during this Budget process of the Treasury wishing to spin various different aspects of the economic and fiscal information they receive from the Office for Budget Responsibility, does this change to one forecast a year not make the mar…”

“Yes—it was false.”

“My point, Professor Miles, is that between the time when we were told by the Chancellor of the bad news and the moment on 14 November when the Treasury had to clarify to the gilt market—because it had reacted so badly—that there was good news in the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, the impression that was cr…”