Speeches by Dean.

“We have spoken quite a bit about the productivity forecast and how it has been downgraded. I wanted to touch quickly on what it was offset by in this fiscal event, namely inflation, wages, income and so on. There are a couple of things that struck me about the reporting around it that I wondered whether you could shine…”

“Professor Miles, you spoke about how the news story broke that there had been some change to the OBR forecast. It was around about the time that it was widely reported that the income tax rate proposal had been dropped. Is the real reason for the letter that, as an institution, you felt you were being used as a politic…”

“I can see Tom wants to come in, but to explain the question, obviously this is known to the Government, and their communications can affect some of these markets, as we have seen, and as Dame Harriett Baldwin alluded to. Do you fear that at any point during the cycle the Government communications could end up affecting…”

“I want to focus on the interest rate window. You said that that did not move, and it was set early in the summer. When was that? Can you clarify what the interest rate window was?”

“Unfortunately, I think you might have set a precedent. I can see that Tom Josephs wants to come in.”

“Why can’t we have that?”

“No, I mean on the publication of the EFO. You already publish the dates of the different forecasts, and we could have the figures that sit alongside, with explanations about why your forecasts went up and down.”

“I want to know why it is not right for our Committee—after the event; not as a running commentary throughout the process—to have that information to hand.”

“Could you explain to us why they might fluctuate between events?”

“But what about at the publication of the EFO? You already tell us the dates.”

“You said that the unusual step was to publish the prior forecasts, and you feel a need to protect them in the future. Can you explain why?”

“So we were always going to find out that piece of information eventually.”

“The critical piece of information in your letter that everyone focused on was the final pre-measures estimate and the date on which it was released. You have helpfully clarified to the Chair already that that is published in the EFO every time.”

“The panel has already explained how the pre-measures forecast of a £4 billion surplus is not necessarily positive news for the country, but it could have been much worse if not for the growth in labour income. Could you explain what that was driven by? How much of a surprise was it when you got to that stage?”

“One of the risks to the fiscal forecast that you highlighted in your report is the potential for a correction in the global stock market. We are hearing news this morning that UK pension funds are starting to dump US equities, and there is a general fear that we might have an AI bubble. Could you talk us through those …”

“We could see the real effect of this, perhaps, in future fiscal events.”

“My follow-up question is that, while clearly this was positive news from the Chancellor’s perspective in trying to meet her fiscal rules, some have reported this as positive news for the economy overall—there was good news in there. To what extent are these factors good news? I am particularly thinking about the fiscal…”

“Just one final thing on the IMF report: the IMF said in July 2025 that one of the strategies you could take is to have “Proactive communication to manage market expectations. Continuing to telegraph and explain policy changes”. Do you think that the Government listened to that particular element this time around, and i…”

“Richard Hughes, former OBR chair, told the Treasury Committee in July that moving to a single annual forecast would make us “one of the least fiscally transparent countries in Europe”. Do you think the fact that there are still two forecasts, but only one formal assessment, means that that statement does not hold true …”

“I understand the sentiment, and I know that the IMF made recommendations to this effect. It wanted to de-emphasise the concept of headroom in public debate, but the reality is that if they are seen to be off-track, and there is no repair made in the spring statement, the markets are going to react accordingly, aren’t t…”