Written questions by Stephenson.

If she will make an assessment of the potential impact of the Autumn Budget 2024 on trends in the level of employment in the hospitality sector in (a) 2024-25 and (b) 2025-26.

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s October 2024 forecast, which considers the impact of all the Budget measures, expects the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Autumn Budget 2024 introduced measures that benefit the hospitality sector. Cutting alcohol duty on qualifying draught products represents an overall reduction in duty bills of over £85m a year and is equivalent to a 1p duty reduction on a typical strength pint. On business rates, for 2025-26, the government will provide a 40 per cent discount to Retail, Hospitality and Leisure (RHL) properties up to a cash cap of £110,0000 per business and has frozen the small business multiplier. This will save the average pub, with a rateable value (RV) of £16,800, over £3,300 in 2025. From 2026-27, the government intends to introduce permanently lower tax rates for RHL properties with an RV below £500,000 .

If he will make an assessment of the potential causes of the increase in the number of over-65s being hospitalised in November and December (a) 2023 and (b) 2024.

NHS England publishes information on admissions by age group, including for those aged 65 years old and over. The proportion of admissions has remained relatively stable between the years at approximately 4%. There is a long-term growth trend overall in the number of hospital admissions. The following table shows the number of admitted hospital attendances for people aged 65 years old and over, and the proportion of total admitted attendances for people aged 65 years old and over, in England, in November and December 2023 and in November and December 2024:MonthAdmitted hospital attendances for people aged 65 years old and over, EnglandProportion of total admitted attendances for people aged 65 years old and over, EnglandNovember 2023141,50045%December 2023154,66547%November 2024160,63043%December 2024154,99545%Source: NHS England, available at the following link: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/ae-waiting-times-and-activity/ae-attendances-and-emergency-admissions-2024-25/Notes:this data is provided as a percentage of total admissions, therefore, the figures have been calculated from these percentages and rounded to the nearest whole number; andthe data publication is released monthly, with December 2024 being the most recent publication, and therefore the December figures are provisional and are subject to revisions.

With reference to the East West Railway Company Limited consultation document Connecting people, building communities, published in November 2024, and pursuant to the Answer of 15 January 2025 to Question 22408 on East West Rail Line: Construction, whether the estimate provided in that Answer is based on (a) the Existing stations option or (b) the Consolidated stations option for Connection Stage 3 on the Marston Vale Line.

The capital cost estimate for East West Rail includes costs for relocating stations on the Marston Vale Line, should this option be chosen. This is subject to the outcome of the consultation and decisions have not yet been on taken on this.

If she will make an assessment of the potential impact of recent increases in the cost of Electronic Travel Authorisations on future trends in economic growth over the next five years.

The published Impact Assessment supporting the Immigration and Nationality (Fees) Order provides provisional estimates of economic impacts from increasing ETA fees from current levels to the proposed fee maxima: https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukia/2025/9/pdfs/ukia_20250009_en.pdf

If her Department has made an estimate of the cost to the East-West Railway Company Limited of the proposed increase in employer National Insurance contributions.

East West Railway Company has not yet completed a detailed analysis.

Pursuant to the Answer of 15 January 2025 to Question 22408 on East West Rail Line: Construction, if she will make an estimate of costs for financial year 2025-26.

An update on costs for the East-West Rail project will be released at a future statutory consultation.

Pursuant to the Answer of 29 January 2025 on Question 25795 on Agriculture and Business: Inheritance Tax, how many of the 2,000 estates will contain woodlands.

Woodlands may be eligible for certain inheritance tax reliefs and exemptions, depending on the type of woodland and its purpose. Guidance is available at www.gov.uk/guidance/woodland-owners-tax-guidance. It is estimated that a total of around 2,000 estates will pay more inheritance tax in 2026-27 following the reforms to agricultural property relief and business property relief. The previous answer outlined that around half of those estates are expected to only hold shares designated as not listed on recognised stock exchanges, such as the Alternative Investment Market. While estates include supporting documentation about the type of assets on which they claim these reliefs when submitting their claims, only the value of eligible assets is digitally captured in a format available for further analysis. As such, this level of detail is not available from historic claims to estimate how many future estates might contain woodland.

Whether she has provided funding from the public purse to offset the impact of changes to employers’ National Insurance contributions on public sector arms-length bodies.

The Government will provide support for departments and other public sector employers for additional employer National Insurance Contributions costs only. This funding will be allocated to departments, with the Barnett formula applying in the usual way, which is in line with the approach taken under the previous Government’s Health and Social Care Levy.The Government plans to publish allocations for departments alongside departmental budgets for 2025/26 as part of Mains estimates.

Whether her Department has produced modelling on the potential behavioural impact of increases to employers’ National Insurance.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the increase in employer NICs will reduce the level of potential output by 0.1% at the forecast horizon, by reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average hours equivalent. Overall, once the impact of all Budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also sets out the costing for the employer NICs increase, including behavioural impacts, in table 3.2.https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_Oct_2024.pdf

What estimate she has made of the marginal propensity to consume of (a) all pensioners, (b) pensioners under the threshold for Pension Credit and (c) pensioners over the threshold for Pension Credit.

HM Treasury does not hold this information. The average award of Pension Credit is worth more than £4,200 a year, providing a safety net for pensioners on the lowest incomes. The UK Government is focused on maximising Pension Credit take-up to ensure those entitled to it are getting the support they need. Over 12 million pensioners will benefit from our commitment to protect the Triple Lock on the new and basic State Pensions. Based on OBR Autumn 2024 forecasts, over the course of this Parliament, the full yearly rate of the new State Pension is expected to increase by around £1900.

If she will make an estimate of the proportion of Winter Fuel Payments that were spent through (a) direct and (b) indirect taxation in 2023-24.

The department does not hold information on how Winter Fuel Payments were spent in 2023–24.

If she will make an estimate of the impact of her policies on employers’ National Insurance contributions on economic growth.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the increase in employer NICs will reduce the level of potential output by 0.1% at the forecast horizon, by reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average hours equivalent. Overall, once the impact of all Budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also sets out the costing for the employer NICs increase, including behavioural impacts, in table 3.2.https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_Oct_2024.pdf

What assessment she has made of the potential impact of changes to eligibility for Winter Fuel Payments on consumer spending.

It is not possible to attribute changes in consumer spending or economic growth to any changes to Winter Fuel Payments. It is not possible to disentangle these from other much larger factors that could affect economic growth or consumption.

Whether she discussed bank branch closures with the Chief Executive Officer of Lloyds during their meeting on 28 January 2025.

Ministers and treasury officials regularly meet with the retail banks to discuss a wide variety of topics. Banking has changed significantly in recent years with many customers benefitting from the ease and convenience of remote banking. FCA guidance expects firms to carefully consider the impact of planned branch closures on their customers’ everyday banking and cash access needs and put in place alternatives where reasonable. The Government recognises the importance of face-to-face banking to communities and high streets, and is committed to championing sufficient access for all. This is why the Government continues to work with banks, including Lloyds Banking Group, to roll out 350 banking hubs across the UK by the end of this Parliament. Currently over 200 banking hubs have been recommended and over 100 are already open.

What estimate her Department made of job losses when calculating the contribution to the public purse of the increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.

A Tax Information and Impact Note (TIIN) was published alongside the introduction of the Bill containing the changes to employer NICs. The TIIN sets out the impact of the policy on the exchequer, the economic impacts of the policy, and the impacts on individuals, businesses, and civil society organisations, as well as an overview of the equality impacts. In their October 2024 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated the increase in employer NICs will reduce the level of potential output by 0.1% at the forecast horizon, by reducing labour supply by around 50,000 average hours equivalent. Overall, once the impact of all Budget measures are taken into consideration, the OBR expect the employment level to increase from 33.1 million in 2024 to 34.3 million in 2029. The Economic and Fiscal Outlook also sets out the costing for the employer NICs increase, including behavioural impacts, in table 3.2.https://obr.uk/docs/dlm_uploads/OBR_Economic_and_fiscal_outlook_Oct_2024.pdf

Whether funding has been provided from the public purse to offset the impact of changes to employers’ National Insurance contributions on the East-West Rail Company.

At Autumn Budget 2024, the Government set aside funding for public sector employers for additional NIC costs. This is in line with the government’s usual approach to supporting the public sector, as was the case with the previous government’s Health and Social Care Levy. 2025-26 allocations will be published as part of the Main Supply Estimates in the Spring.

If he will make an estimate of the potential impact of changes to employers’ National Insurance contributions on employment in the construction industry.

More than half of employers, including small businesses in the construction sector will see no change or gain overall. The Government has protected small businesses and charities from the impact of the increase to Employer National Insurance by increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500, and 865,000 employers will pay no NICs next year. Eligible employers will be able to employ up to four full-time workers on the National Living Wage and pay no employer NICs.Meeting the Government’s commitments to build the infrastructure we need, and deliver 1.5m homes over this Parliament, will need an increased workforce. We are committed to working with industry to do that.

Communities and Local Government, if she will make an assessment of the potential impact of changes to employers’ National Insurance contribution on the plan to build 1.5 million houses in this Parliament.

I refer the hon. Member to the answer given to Question UIN 21627 on 17 January 2025.

What steps her Department plans to take to help tackle financial fraud.

This Government is committed to working with law enforcement, industry and international partners to tackle financial fraud. This includes blocking fraud at its source, disrupting it before it reaches the public, and providing preventative advice and support such as our “Stop! Think Fraud” campaign.Further industry action includes potential legislative action to ban “SIM farms”, technical devices that allow criminals to send scam texts to thousands of people at the same time, and the Online Safety Act codes of practice which will come into effect in March.We are working closely with partners to develop a new expanded Strategy as set out in our manifesto. Further details on our approach will be set out in due course.

How much funding will be allocated for (a) Cambridge Cancer Research Hospital and (b) Milton Keynes Hospital through the New Hospital Programme.

My Rt Hon. Friend, the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care set out a credible and deliverable plan for the new hospital schemes in the New Hospital Programme (NHP) on 20 January 2025, following the conclusion of the review of the NHP. The Plan for Implementation was laid in the House Library and published on the GOV.UK website, and is available at the following link:https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/new-hospital-programme-review-outcomeAs confirmed by the publication, the estimated cost for the Cambridge Cancer Research Hospital scheme and the Milton Keynes Hospital scheme is £500 million or less for each scheme. However, these are estimates and the exact funding for the schemes is determined through the review and through the agreement of the individual hospital scheme business cases, as is usual for large infrastructure projects.