Written questions by Lake.

Whether she has made and assessment of the potential merits of completing an updated assessment of the potential savings to the Exchequer from withdrawing the postponed VAT accounting process, taking into account (a) increased deferred VAT payments since implementation, (b) growth in missing trader fraud and VAT loss due to misuse or non-compliance,(c) sectoral analysis of industries contributing most to deferred VAT and (d) behavioural and enforcement trends since PVA’s introduction.

Postponed VAT accounting provides significant support for businesses, helping to manage cash flow and facilitate imports. HMRC undertakes regular operational work to ensure compliance with the rules around postponed VAT accounting. The VAT gap has reduced from 13.8% in 2005-06 to 6.2% in 2024-25, and has remained broadly stable since 2020-21. The Government keeps all tax policy under review as part of the policy making process

With reference to HM Treasury's press release entitled Government announces support package that backs British pubs, published on 27 January 2026, what her proposed timeline is for the Barnett Formula Consequentials related to this funding to be made available to the Welsh Government, including the total sum.

Any Barnett consequentials for the Welsh Government resulting from policy changes will be confirmed at the relevant fiscal event.

What comparative assessment she has made of levels of relative spending per head on reserved matters in (a) Wales and (b) England.

Spending on reserved matters is determined by the UK Government according to UK-wide priorities. The Country and Regional Analysis publication shows estimates for the allocation of identifiable expenditure in the nations and regions of the UK: Country and regional analysis - GOV.UK

What support his Department is providing to individuals who live off grid and who are on low incomes who do not meet the eligibility criteria for the Warm Homes Discount.

Thanks to decisions in the recent Budget, an average of £150 of costs will be removed from household energy bills from April. The actions at budget also make electricity cheaper, meaning everyone will benefit and the transfer of the Renewables Obligation to public expenditure is a significant step towards rebalancing levies away from electricity. What individual households actually save will depend on their specific energy use. Households with bigger electricity bills could save more than £150. In addition, the Budget significantly increased the capital budget for home insulation through the Warm Homes Plan by £1.5bn to almost £15bn. This is the biggest public investment ever to upgrade homes with insulation and clean tech like solar panels and heat pumps.

What assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of recent exemptions or carve-outs granted to large United States multinational enterprises under the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting on (a) the effectiveness of the global minimum tax, (b) UK tax revenues, and (c) the principle of equal treatment between multinational enterprises operating in the UK.

The UK, with more than 140 members of the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework have reached agreement on a package of reforms to the Pillar 2 Global Minimum Tax system to address how it should interact with US minimum tax rules. As set out in my written statement to the House on 7th January, these changes bring stability and clarity for business, as well as protection from retaliatory measures. At the same time, the largest multinationals will continue to pay their fair share of tax through comprehensive systems of global minimum taxation. This agreement underlines the continued commitment of the UK and others to tackle aggressive tax planning by multinational enterprises and preserve the level playing field. All multinationals are subject to the 25% Corporation Tax rate on profits they make in the UK, and they remain subject to the UK’s domestic minimum tax rate of 15%. The changes will be fully costed with the OBR in in the usual way as the UK brings forward legislation in the next Finance Bill.

Innovation and Technology, what steps her Department is taking to help prevent the creation of non‑consensual sexualised images through the Grok Imagine app in the UK.

The Government has been clear that non-consensual intimate images are reprehensible and no service should allow their creation and distribution.The Online Safety Act requires in-scope services to prevent such content appearing on in-scope services and to remove it swiftly when it does. Where they fail to do this, Ofcom has robust enforcement powers - including fining 10% of global revenueFurthermore, the offence of creating intimate images without consent was signed into force last week. The Secretary of State announced it will be made a priority offence under the Online Safety Act – delivering the strongest protections in the Act for users from such content.

What assessment her Department made of the potential impact in Wales of increasing the threshold of Agricultural Property and Relief and Businesses Property Relief to £2.5 million.

The Government announced that the allowance for 100 per cent rate of relief will be increased from £1 million to £2.5 million. This means a couple will now be able to pass on up to £5 million of agricultural or business assets tax-free between them, on top of the existing allowances such as the nil-rate band. Information from claims is not recorded to enable constituency, regional or national breakdowns of the number of estates expected to be affected. However, compared to Budget 2025, the expected number of estates across the UK claiming agricultural property relief, including those also claiming business property relief, forecast to pay more inheritance tax in 2026-27 halves from 375 to 185. Around 85 per cent of estates across the UK claiming agricultural property relief in 2026-27, including those that also claim for business property relief, are forecast to pay no more inheritance tax on their estates under these changes. Excluding estates only holding shares designated as ‘not listed’ on the markets of recognised stock exchanges, the reforms are also now expected to result in up to 220 estates across the UK only claiming business property relief paying more inheritance tax in 2026-27. This is a reduction from up to 325 such estates forecast to pay more at Budget 2025. This means just over 80 per cent of such estates making claims are forecast to not pay any more inheritance tax. A tax information and impact note has been published in the normal way for UK wide changes to the tax system. This is available at www.gov.uk/government/publications/changes-to-agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief/agricultural-property-relief-and-business-property-relief-changes.

Innovation and Technology, whether her Department has had discussions with X on the potential impact of the output of its Grok AI on child safety.

The government is clear that no one should have to go through the ordeal of seeing intimate images of themselves online.There are no excuses not to act, and services must deal with this urgently. Ofcom are looking into this as a matter of urgency, and they have the government’s full backing to take any necessary enforcement action.Services and operators have a clear obligation to act appropriately. This is not about restricting freedom of speech but upholding the law.

Whether her Department has had discussions with Tesla UK regarding the potential child safety implications of vehicle-integrated artificial intelligence systems.

The Department for Transport has not had discussions with Tesla specifically regarding potential child safety implications of vehicle-integrated artificial intelligence (AI) systems.Many manufacturers use AI tools and techniques to develop and optimise various aspects of vehicles, including their safety systems. For those aspects covered by vehicle technical regulations, the systems are required to be fixed (i.e. they are no longer permitted to evolve) before they are placed on the market and subject to objective testing to verify their performance.

What assessment she made of the potential merits of including provisions for a statutory Independent Child Exploitation Advocate, modelled on section 48 of the Modern Slavery Act, in the Crime and Policing Bill.

The government is not currently exploring separate exploitation advocates as the Independent Child Trafficking Guardianship (ICTG) service exists as an independent source of advice, advocacy and support for potential child victims of modern slavery, exploitation and human trafficking in the National Referral Mechanism (NRM).In line with Section 48 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, the Government is committed to providing a national ICTG service in England and Wales.The ICTG service was initially introduced in 2017 and a staggered approach to rollout was taken to allow time to trial an effective model of delivery. This has enabled the Home Office to test and evaluate different models of service delivery, expanding and adapting as necessary to develop a model that is suitable for national provision. In September 2025, the invitation-to-tender for the national contract was launched, which will expand the current service coverage from two-thirds of local authorities to all child victims referred into the NRM in England and Wales. The tender process is now underway and updates to legislation are currently being considered.Statutory first responders must refer all potential victims of modern slavery, trafficking and exploitation into the NRM to ensure they are appropriately identified and provided with support. Whilst local authorities are responsible for safeguarding and promoting the welfare of all children in their area, referring a child potential victim into the NRM ensures that child potential victims of exploitation, modern slavery and human trafficking in the NRM will also get support from the ICTG service.Independent Sexual Violence Advisers (ISVAs) also play a critical role in supporting victims and survivors and their families. We have commissioned a rapid assessment of the current ISVA support service and resource landscape, specifically for children and young people who are victims of grooming gangs, including technology-facilitated abuse.

How many sub postmasters resident in Wales have had claims related to the Horizon IT system (a) settled and (b) not settled.

The Department for Business and Trade has not, to date, compiled data on Horizon-related claims by the UK’s constituent countries; however, we intend to include this breakdown in a future publication. Overall, across the UK, as of 28 November 2025, approximately 10,000 claims have been settled under the Horizon redress schemes, while around 2,600 received claims remain unsettled.

What are the Zone A rates for retail properties used to calculate the business rates due in (a) Aberystwyth, (b) Tregaron, (c) Aberaeron, (d) Lampeter, (e) Llandysul, (f) Cardigan, (g) St Dogmaels, (h) Crymych, (i) Fishguard, (j) Goodwick and k) Clunderwen.

Retail Zone A rates are specific to individual properties, so there will be a range of Zone A values in each of the locations referred to.

Pursuant to the answer of 2 December 2025 to question 95185, what the updated average annual change in the Welsh Government’s capital budget is between 2025-26 and 2029-30; and whether that budget will increase.

As a result of decisions at Budget 2025, the Welsh Government will receive an additional £185m CDEL through the operation of the Barnett formula on top of the record settlement provided at Spending Review 2025. This will ensure the Welsh Government are funded above their independently assessed level of need in all years of the Spending Review 2025 period.

What the cost to the public purse has been of UK military flights over Gaza since October 2023.

While I am unable to disclose these costs for reasons of operational security and as a matter of policy, Defence operational spend in relation to the Israel-Gaza conflict and the wider Middle East has been published in its Annual Reports and Accounts for financial years 2023-24 and 2024-25.

What estimate she has made of the number of additional people who will paying the (a) basic rate and (b) higher rate of income tax broken down by country, in the context of the extension of the income tax threshold freeze announced in the Autumn Budget 2025

The number of people forecast to pay tax by marginal rate can be found in Table 3.19 in the OBR’s November 2025 Economic and fiscal outlook – detailed forecast tables: receipts, linked below: https://obr.uk/download/november-2025-economic-and-fiscal-outlook-detailed-forecast-tables-receipts/?tmstv=1764165511 The previous Government made the decision to maintain income tax thresholds at their current levels from April 2021 until April 2028.

What assessment she has made of the impact of inflation on the real terms value of the £505 million in Barnett Formula consequential funding for the Welsh Government announced at the Autumn Budget 2025.

Welsh Government block grant funding is growing in real terms between 2024-25 and 2028-29.

What assessment has she made of the impact of the additional Barnett Formula consequential funding for the Welsh Government announced at the Autumn Budget 2025 on the average annual growth of the Welsh Government’s capital budget between 2025-26 and 2029-30.

The additional funding that the Welsh Government will receive as a result of decisions at Autumn Budget 2025 and through the operation of the Barnett Formula increases the average annual growth of the Welsh Government’s capital budget between 2025-26 and 2029-30 compared to the settlements provided at Spending Review 2025.

What assessment has her department made of the potential impact of the Autumn Budget 2025 on the forecasts for (a) living standards (b) Real Household Disposable Income in Wales, as compared to the pre-Autumn Budget 2025 forecasts.

HM Treasury does not prepare forecasts for the UK economy. Forecasts, including for RHDI per person, are the responsibility of the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). In their November forecast, after accounting for the effects of policy, the OBR forecasts real household disposable income per person to rise by 2.9% over this Parliament.

Will the 10% increase in the size of the Welsh Government's (a) annual capital borrowing limit (b) cumulative capital borrowing (c) overall limit on the size of the Wales Reserve, (d) annual limit for drawing down from the Wales reserve for day-to-day spending and (e) annual limit for drawing down from the Wales reserve for capital spending, as announced in the Autumn Budget 2025, fully restore the real terms value losses that these limits have experienced to due inflation since they were initially fixed in cash terms.

The updates to the Welsh Government’s Fiscal Framework announced at Autumn Budget 2025 increase the real value of the Welsh Government’s budget management tools. The annual uprating of the limits from 2027-28 will maintain the real value of the Welsh Government’s capital borrowing and Wales Reserve.

Communities and Local Government, when he last met with the National Fire Chiefs Council to discuss wildfires; and if he will publish the minutes.

Ministers regularly meet with external stakeholders. As is precedent, details of Ministerial meetings with external organisations and individuals are published quarterly on GOV.UK.