Supercharging the EV transition

Status / emerging findings

• EV car sales have stalled at ~22% of new registrations for 6–9 months; price parity with petrol vehicles is now achieved for larger cars but growth is driven overwhelmingly by fleet/company schemes (75% of sales), leaving low-income private buyers largely excluded
• Charging infrastructure lags demand: 88,000–119,000 public chargers exist but 85% are concentrated in urban areas, prices have risen 38% since 2021, and most are slow chargers masking a 'charging speed gap' versus petrol refuelling
• Heavy-duty electrification faces a critical grid constraint: 10–15 year connection timescales in major logistics hubs make 2035–2040 HGV targets undeliverable; only £1 billion government funding is insufficient to connect SME operators
• Vehicle depreciation has fallen continuously for 38 months, threatening lease affordability and potentially reducing EV sales by 300,000 units by 2027; rental sector reports billions in losses
• ZEV mandate met targets in 2025 via credit trading that favoured Tesla and Chinese manufacturers; government changed mandate terms in April 2025 but effectiveness data remains unavailable

Why it matters

The UK is falling behind its own climate targets: EV adoption has stalled, infrastructure is unevenly distributed, and proposed taxes may further dampen uptake, while heavy-duty vehicle electrification faces grid constraints that government funding does not address.

Tone arc

Sessions moved from cooperative (charging infrastructure as solvable logistics problem) to increasingly critical: by March–April, witnesses exposed contradictions between government optimism and underlying structural barriers—affordability, grid failures, regional inequality, and revenue-raising measures (eVED) potentially undermining transition goals.

Key witnesses

Keir Mather MP (Transport Minister), Nigel Topping CMG (Climate Change Committee), Dr Eoin Devane (Climate Change Committee), Jamie Sands (Welch Group transport operator), David Boot (Road Haulage Association), Dr Vicky Edmonds (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit), Dr Nicole Bulawa (ChargeUK), Jarrod Birch (Energy Networks Association)